America sell out the ROC on Taiwan?

First, can the PRC hurt the ROC?

People, as I have said twice before, the only way the People's Liberation
Army (PLA) can get to Taiwan is via airliner. For those of you with maps,
the blue part between the Chinese mainland and the island of Taiwan is
water. Deep water. To cross deep water, one needs ships. The PRC navy
(technically the naval service of the PLA) is at least an order of
magnitude too small to support a major raid (ala Dieppe) much less an
Overlord-class invasion. Of all military undertakings, "Combined
Operations" (the use of land, air, and sea power to assault a distant
objective) is by far the most difficult. Were this not the case, Napoleon
would have conquered England, and Hitler would have done the same. The
similarity of the cases is striking. But Hitler and Napoleon DIDN'T, did
they?

Therefore, the PRC can wish, and snarl, and bluster all it wants, but it
CANNOT, on objective fact, land enough troops to cause more than an
annoyance to the ROC, and THAT assumes that the ROC navy is asleep for the
crossing. One is reminded of Bismarck's reply to the possibility that the
British Army would land in Pomerania, on the German Baltic Coast: "I would
send the police to arrest them." All that's going on right now is some
primo training time for the ROC military. This will have them awake and
motivated for years.

Second, what would America do?

There are numerous reasons why America would have no choice but to
respond, but I will ignore the ancillary ones, like trade, tourism, and
the Chinese-American community. Let's concentrate on two: regional
stability and America's global credibility.

A. Regional Stability

When one country knocks over another country in any region of the world,
the other countries in that region necessarily get nervous. Rather like
having a home in your neighborhood burglarized. People start buying guns
and alarm systems. Such a development is just generally bad for everyone.
We have alliances with countries in that area, Japan, the Republic of
Korea, Thailand, for starters. Toss in the ANZUS Treaty. All of those
countries would get nervous, and America is committed by treaty to the
collective defense of the region. All are important trading partners, most
have been allies in war, and all have friendly relations with us. Which
leads us to:

B. America's Credibility

If America does not respond to such an attack here, then, people will ask,
where will she? Failure to react would devalue to zero all of America's
treaty commitments, not to mention the informal understandings we have
with countries which are not formal allies. A nation like America cannot
allow such things to happen, because if such a thing does happen, you are
out of business as a great power. Cicero, when asked how Rome grew great
and powerful (this was under the Roman Republic, remember, not the later
Empire) replied that it wasn't through military power, but through defense
of her allies. Rome was great and powerful because Rome's word was good.
That rule, people, has therefore been around for 2,000 years.

Methodology

Moreover, interfering with such an invasion would be easy, and even
deniable. How to do it? Submarines. Say 3-5 of them in the Formosa Strait
could get into an invasion force, and the havoc would be worthy of Homer
-- plus being something we could deny. Our subs? Not us, Chairman Deng.
The ROCs have subs, too, you know. Sorry about all the ships and troops.
You can display carriers to show resolve. For the serious work, you don't
show anything, and few really appreciate the effect a few nuclear
submarines on the minds of naval commanders, though for a taste of the
idea, look what happened to Argentina in 1982. One (1) shot put their
whole navy alongside and pinned it there. Like Sigourney Weaver's "Alien,"
you don't know where they are until people start dying, and even then
there's damned little you can do about it. Any sub skipper would rather
have an opportunity like this than a weekend in Vegas with Meg Ryan. The
PRC navy would be utterly defenseless against such an attack. Taking candy
from a baby is a difficult assignment in comparison.

In short, if the market value of Taiwanese stock issues falls, go long on
some good ones. The PRC can only hurt the ROC if the Taiwan government
allows it to happen. Whatever threat might exist to the ROC, it is not
physical, but rather psychological, and then only to those who don't know
about the blue ink on the map.